Reader personas: Using multi-dimensional user personas to improve retention

Using personas for design and product development work is part of the practice, but Better News highlights how the Detroit Free Press is using multi-dimensional personas in its retention efforts. This example touches on two themes of this newsletter for the year: product development and retention. The underlying idea is pretty obvious that people can’t be pigeonholed into simple demographic or even psychographic categories. They demonstrate how they took this idea and put it in service of building loyalty and habit in their audiences. 

And, of course, in 2023, almost any idea seems to be touched in some way with AI, and frankly, this is also pretty obvious. How can AI be put into service to serve up rich related stories for a reader based on their individual interests rather than metadata-based related content modules? 

And The Audiencers at Poool review a new series of benchmarks to measure subscription performance. 
Plus, in addition to a bit of industry news, I highlight a few practical pieces that flew by including one about the big shift for Google Analytics users from UA to GA4. The deadline is looming. And some of the shift is down to privacy issues, which is highlighted in another piece on how media agencies are building privacy expertise this year. 

And thanks to David Boyle for the photo of a man reading a newspaper in New York City

Next-level persona work

This is a deep case study that highlights exactly what this team did with their multi-dimensional persona work. They not only developed personas based on interests but also used a basic retention model that tied specific KPIs to their likelihood to keep their subscriptions. The result was data that challenged some basic assumptions about a core audience, readers who followed the local baseball team. 

AI recommendation systems are being used by 70% of publishers, according to the Reuters Institute. This is a good summary of some research done into how personas were affecting recommendation systems, and it highlighted the personas that publishers are using to surface more relevant content for audiences. 

An analysis of digital subscription success using a digital subscriber/1000 pageviews metric. After explaining why he used that metric, he goes on to compare the performance of different subscription models such as freemium, metered paywall, hard paywall and voluntary payments. 

Get smarter: The switch to GA4, challenging the narrative around AI and why ad shops are focusing on privacy

The switch to GA4 is happening in July, and the executive editor at a newspaper in the US reviews what they learned in the switch. 

The narrative about generative AI has quickly devolved into one driven by moral panic about it replacing journalists, and this piece challenges us to think more deeply about AI from an academic perspective. 

Privacy is one of the major regulatory themes this year as it has been for the last several years. Media agencies are beefing up their privacy talent to respond. 

Industry News: Publishers still seeing growth but layoffs continue in 2023

A FIPP report from the end of 2022 found that publishers continue to see digital subscription growth. My wife has just launched a newsletter on Substack, and it’s very intriguing to see growth figures broken out by the platform. 

They are reorganising their ad business to focus on the demand side and getting out of the supply side, which makes a lot of sense. The ad and adtech space is so crowded. It is the epitome of a red ocean space, which is why the cuts so swiftly in a downturn. 
While Yahoo feels back of mind these days with the rise of other platforms, it still pulls in $8bn a year in revenue. Although this reporting triggers one of my beefs about business reporting: Saying that the company is profitable and then quoting a revenue figure is conflating two things. A company can pull in $8bn in revenue and still not break even. 

This amounts to a 5% cut in their headcount. The company missed their quarterly estimates due to all of the usual suspects in the news business in a softening economy. 

Beyond subscriptions and ads: Publishers look for other pillars of revenue growth

When we were speaking to publishers for Pugpig’s State of the Digital Publishing Market report, one theme that I heard was that they were looking for other sources of revenue in addition to ads and subscriptions. In another example of a publisher diversifying its revenue streams, The Athletic’s chief commercial officer told Digiday what other revenue streams the site was exploring to drive revenue past the break-even point. 

While several outlets have covered the decline in new podcast creation, the picture is more complicated than declaring podcasting in decline overall. Podcast advertising remains robust. But then advertisers can often be late to arrive at a party and late to leave. They tend to be a conservative bunch looking for guaranteed returns from their investment.

And What’s New in Publishing summarises research from data platform provider Lotame about how publishers are preparing for Google’s end of supporting third-party cookies.

In industry news, Penske invests in Vox, and Google is ending a feature to allow users to play podcasts directly from search results. UK’s Reach has named the editors of its foray into the US as it continues to look for scale. 

Housekeeping 

And thanks to Christine Roy for the image for this edition of the newsletter. (I’m doing this because I’m not happy about how Beehiiv shows attribution for photos.) And one other housekeeping note. The newsletter has had a rather uneven publishing schedule, but now that life is settling into a bit more of a routine post the move, I’ll be publishing on Monday, Wednesday and Friday apart from when I’m on holiday. 

We already covered brand extensions and now The Athletic’s chief commercial officer lays out the range of revenue streams that the sports news service now owned by the New York Times plans to reach profitability by 2025. 

As long as there is money to be made and publishers have success with podcasts, we’ll see resources pour into audio on demand. As I have said before, people have less time to create podcasts now that pandemic lockdowns have mostly ended. But commuting is one of the prime times of the day to listen to podcasts so consumption for those types of podcasts might bounce back. If I were still a product director for a broadcaster (which I was until April of last year), I would look at how podcast listening habits have changed as my audiences have exited lockdown, and I would look at how my stable of podcast products may or may continue to fit into new habits. 

The biggest publishers and broadcasters like Bloomberg have already started to shift away from third-party cookies and have used first-party user data as a competitive advantage, but for a wider range of publishers, it has been easier to kick the can down the road, especially since Google already has. But publishers, particularly in the UK, are now having a greater sense of urgency. 

Industry news: Google winds down a podcast search feature, Reach names US editors and Penske’s investment in Vox

Today in AI: Getty sues Stable Diffusion maker and Google gets into the AI chatbot game

The AI headlines continue to come at a torrid pace as ChatGPT and AI image generators such as Stable Diffusion and Midjourney allow anyone to create jaw-dropping images with a few text prompts. However, this space is also contentious with experiments highlighting the need for editorial standards needing to be applied to this new technology. 

Speaking of ChatGPT, Google has released its own chatbot, and Josh Benton of Nieman Lab asks what that means for publishers. 

Journalism Headlines: Green shoots in a news desert and how to get stories from company data

And last but not least: the exit to Mastodon seems like a flash in the pan. I have to say, decentralisation without usability is never going to work. Crypto and decentralisation divorced from user needs and usability will always fail. At that point, they become ideologies not technologies. 

App Product Development: Aftenposten’s Discovery, Nail It and Scale It

How do you design and build a new app? It’s something that we think a lot about in my new(ish) role at Pugpig as their consulting services director. INMA highlights a couple of frameworks used by successful publishers, Schibsted’s Aftenposten and the Financial Times. The first thing I would highlight is that product development needs to involve your entire organisation – editorial, commercial,marketing and technical. These examples are important and useful in that they cover two important elements of the product process, organisational alignment efforts and voice-of-the-user efforts. 

Speaking of apps, Mediapost.com has highlighted a report from the US Department of Commerce that calls on Congress to pass legislation that opens up app stores by forcing Apple and Google to open up additional paths for app developers to get onto users phones. Both in the EU and now the US, we’re seeing efforts to allow for alternative app stores or sideloading. 

App product development and opening up the app stores

Two great case studies on how to develop successful apps from Schibsted’s Aftenposten and the Financial Times. Product managers represent the voice of the user, and in the best managed organisations are empowered to bring various internal stakeholders into alignment through a clear set of goals that help them manage trade offs. That sums up quite a bit about what I learned in master’s in innovation management. It can sound like a simple process, and once an organisation has a structure in place, it can run quite smoothly. But as multiple studies and the experience of product managers in media companies have found, it is this transition to an orderly process that is a tremendous challenge. Schibsted and the FT are the promised land, but for a lot of publishers, product management can definitely feel like an arduous journey in the wilderness. 

In a report by the US Department of Commerce, the Biden Administration says that developers face “significant hurdles” to compete with their mobile apps and that these choices are largely due to decisions made by the companies that control the platforms rather than legitimate technical issues. It has called on Congress to create legislation to open up the app market, which Democratic senators tried to do with proposed legislation in 2021. The upshot is that Apple and Google might be forced to be allow more sideloading, and with Republicans gunning for the major platforms as much as Democrats are, it might be one of the few areas of agreement by fractious parties in the US. 

Digiday’s outlook for the events sector for 2023 and what drives retention more: annual or monthly subs?

Digiday has a couple of excellent pieces today looking at the events pillar of media businesses. While anxiety still persists, publishers in the US are seeing a healthy opportunity for a revived events business. The US economy definitely looks in good health, and if it can manage to tame inflation, then 2023 can be quite a good year.

And retention is definitely a major theme this year for publishers. In a media roundup, they briefly look at whether monthly or annual subscriptions are more effective. 

Media News: A retrospective on algorithms, the podcast winter and Gannett kills comments (with little notice for its publications)

Markup editor Julia Angwin looks back at her tenure at the helm and offers up a meditation on Algorithmic Age. It’s actually not just about algorithms but also her approach to journalism, especially data-driven journalism. 

The drop off in the creation of new podcasts has been reported before. Frankly, I think that this speaks as much to a decline in disposable time once pandemic lockdowns ended – not just for listening to podcasts but more important for creating them. It was easy to launch a new podcast when we were all home bound. Now that life is returning to normal, who has the time? Discuss. 

Social Media Roundup: TikTok outlines new ‘strikes’ system for moderation and a day in the drama around Twitter

TikTok has a new way to manage ‘repeat offenders’. It’s not just a game of whack-a-mole about each case but looking for a pattern of behaviour. 
Twitter might have yet another new competitor, T2, that wants to take its crown. I think it speaks to the space that Musk has opened up as he runs Twitter in such an unfocused way. He has given existing competitors and new entrants the space to challenge the platform. 

Speaking of its lastest ‘let’s throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks’ idea, Musk is now floating the idea of charging brands up to $1000 a month for their golden tick. Well, if he can come up with a way that it can’t be hijacked easily, he might have a business model. 

How targeting specific audiences can lead to subscription success

There were two great reports out this week, one from WAN-IFRA and another by FT Strategies, that highlight the importance of an audience focus in two different but important ways. WAN-IFRA manages the Table Stakes Europe project, and three of the key elements of the strategy are about targeting specific audiences. And the report has several examples of how publishers across Europe have decided on what audiences to target and the results of their experiments. 

FT Strategies runs a Subs Academy, and in the third report of this project, they look at the organisational and operational changes that are needed for subscription growth: collaboration, transparency and audience centricity. When the FT talks about audience centricity, they highlighted how media organisations needed to refine the metrics that they use so that they were measuring things that were most tightly correlated with subscription growth. Both reports are worth a read. 

When I first saw the headline go past comparing ChatGPT and TikTok’s growth trajectory, I was a little sceptical, but after reading deeper, the research from UBS seems to hold up based on monthly average users (MAUs). However, I think it’s worth noting that both ChatGPT and TikTok rely on machine learning algorithms of some sort so I see this as a story about the growth of AI overall rather than a horse race. 

In media industry news, Gawker is being shuttered again, 

Go deep in targeting specific audiences and measuring the audiences that drive subscription growth

FT Strategies goes deep into the kind of operational and organisational changes necessary to drive subscription success. This aligns with the work that I did during my master”s dissertation that highlighted how critical it is to have alignment across the organisation that is rooted in a set of priorities that C-level leaders have agreed upon. Product managers are not magical. They cannot overcome a lack of alignment above them, and if they put in a position of trying to overcome irreconcilable priorities amongst senior stakeholders, they will burn out. 
This report outlines a number of steps to create alignment and collaboration and also that flows into audience-centric activities and KPIs that measure the success of those activities. 

And speaking of audience centricity, WAN-IFRA has an excellent report based on their work with publishers for the Table Stakes Europe project. The underlying hypothesis for the Table Stakes project is that news publishers need to develop and distribute content for specific audiences. This report outlines how a number of publishers are following this playbook and the measurable results that they are having in building brand awareness amongst groups that they currently don’t reach and converting those audiences to paying subscribers. 

If you’re a B2B publisher or cover business, LinkedIn is building tools for you to reach those audiences. I am thinking about experimenting with these tools at Pugpig, and I’d be interested in hearing any success that you might have had with the platform. 

UBS says that ChatGPT is the fastest-growing app in the world

As I said before, I think that this really speaks of the maturity that AI and machine learning has reached that it has broken into the mainstream conversation. I remember more than a decade ago when Clay Shirky was asked about the next killer app at an RSA event in London. He said, “Email.” It was ubiquitous, which speaks to a level of mass adoption. Before mass adoption, you need to have mass awareness, and ChatGPT is providing that for AI. 

A bit of analysis from the moral panic end of the AI discussion. 

A bit of practical knowledge here. Bing will now use an XML tag about when the post has been updated rather than a publish date so that it knows when content has been refreshed. Something to use. Bing isn’t dead. With it’s investment in ChatGPT and its updates, it is still contesting search. 

Famous founders launching new products

A couple of notable new launches that are interesting for the founders and in one case the product. US consumer advocate and presidential candidate Ralph Nader has launched a newspaper to fill a gap where he lives. 

For a launch with slightly wider implications, the founders of Instagram have launched a new news app. I find it slightly interesting that it is called TikTok for text because the underlying ML technology for TikTok started life in an Asian news aggregator app. 

And as new sites launch, old sites fade away. The resurrected Gawker has been put on ice because its new owners say that they won’t continue to invest in “a pre-monetisation product”. That’s bloodlessly scathing. 

Platform News: Meta’s earnings, Google’s anti-trust woes and Twitter business moves

And we have a quick end-of-the-week roundup of news about platforms. Meta’s stocks on a bit of a tear, and its recent results will probably support that. Google on the other hand faces challenges both in its business and from regulators in the US, Europe and elsewhere. 
Apple’s service revenue growth slowed for the first time in three years, but it’s still growing! 
And we get a glimpse of what Elon Musk is planning for Twitter’s new look business model. It’s no secret that he has been thinking about changing Twitter into an Asian super app ala the weibo in China. Those apps are both micro-blogging apps, shopping apps and payment/financial apps. However, you only have to look at Meta’s challenge with introducing a virtual currency to see how this might not be as easy in the US. 

And he cutting off free access to its API. That might not be a bad thing for Twitter or for its eco-system. They should have done this a long time ago. It would have strengthened Twitter and provided a route to maturity for its eco-system. 

TikTok and a new pivot to video: Will it be another boom and bust?

In his review of the year ahead, Nic Newman at the Reuter’s Institute highlighted the role that video, particularly vertical video, was playing in the innovation plans of publishers and broadcasters in the coming year, and our top two stories speak to those efforts. (Of course, Nic also spoke of audio, and it’s important to understand how podcasts play into efforts to retain those important subscribers by adding a touch point with audiences.) 

But is this just another pivot to video as news organisations try to capitalise on the latest off-platform trend? We’ll have the answer to that by the end of this year, if not sooner. 

Speaking of faded off-platform champions, BuzzFeed has been making headlines as it gets another infusion of Facebook cash to crank out creator content and also as it will use AI to cheaply generate some of its content. It is a move that Wall Street seems to love

And I think that CNET should be applauded for being transparent about the results of its AI content generation experiment. It was criticised for not being open that it was doing it in the first place, but I think that they learned that this kind of experimentation can’t be done without that transparency. Knowing who is writing and reporting a story is essential for trust and accountability, whether it is a person or an AI. 

But as I said at a conference in Hungary last week, AI is much more than a robot to outsource content creation to, and there is a flurry of developments in the application of AI for media.

Newsrooms focus on TikTok. Is it another doomed pivot to video?

The battle for talent who are authentic on the platform is on with major publishers looking for video talent. 

It seems to have an audience tailor-made for TikTok. 

Semafor Ben said that one of the lessons that he took away for BuzzFeed was that you shouldn’t build your business on someone else’s platform. It’s a lesson that he wasn’t alone in learning. He looks at the News Movement, who are looking to be a counter example to that lesson. 

AI Round Up: BuzzFeed Outsources – oh, ‘enhances’ content and quizzes with AI 

Speaking of BuzzFeed. AI to its rescue? Media watchers are not nearly as impressed as Wall Street

The Guardian’s take. 

And that Meta deal that is also driving Buzzfeed’s stock price. 

Or 18 Common mistakes that journalists make with AI and how to avoid them. As I said at a conference last week, AI is much more interesting when it comes to personalised content and dynamic paywalls. 

Exhibit A: an acquisition of a company that can “deliver effective content tailored to users’ interests across email, push, and other channels”. (The end of audience engagement editors? Nah, a great conversation still requires humans, well at least for now.)

Lessons were learned by CNET. I actually applaud them for their transparency. 

The ad market

Media watchers are carefully monitoring the ad market for signs of distress to understand whither the media market is going. AP, the US news co-op, is looking to earn more from its content with ads. It’s an interesting move considering the uncertain outlook for the ad market. 

Semafor is starting to demonstrate some interesting innovation, and that is both on the content and advertising side with a text message interview series sponsored by US mobile phone major Verizon. 

And Digiday says that the ad forecast is decidedly dour. 

The Future of Publishing: The Paradoxes of the Attention Economy, AI and how Product Management supports Digital Transformation

Sorry for the relative quietness of the newsletter last week, but I was at a Future of Publishing conference in Hungary representing Pugpig, my employer. The panel that I was on was titled “The Future of Publishing: Worst Case Scenarios”. Our moderator, Debrenti Félix – Head of International and Institutional Relations, BL Press – chose to focus the questions on future challenges that media will face and the role of new revenue streams. I used to go or speak at future of media conferences all of the time, including when I was at  The Guardian, and we hosted them. But it had been a while since I took part in one, and it gave me a chance to think about the development of digital media historically and also where we find ourselves now. I wrote about it for the weekly newsletter that I do for Pugpig, our Media Bulletin

At the end of the talk, I referred to the famous quote from Steward Brand in his conversation with Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak that information wants to be free. I feel the need everytime I hear the quote that it’s a de-contextualised partial quote.  

On the one hand information wants to be expensive, because it’s so valuable. The right information in the right place just changes your life. On the other hand, information wants to be free, because the cost of getting it out is getting lower and lower all the time. So you have these two fighting against each other.

For me, this challenges publishers and broadcasters to understand what information is valuable and why. Some of that information will be intelligence that helps people make money or make the right decision, and other content will be emotionally evocative. At this conference, I mentioned that many of the publishers were actually selling belonging to a particular political movement. That might be more relevant to a membership model than a subscription model. 

The Attention Economy and the Paradoxes of Digital Publishing

Preparing for the panel gave me a great opportunity to reflect on where digital media has been and what challenges lie ahead for publishers big and small. One of the common themes of the panels before me was how easy it was to become a digital publisher, and while I agree that it’s never been easier to publish content digitally, it has created the paradox that it has become more difficult to monetise. Consumers have never had more choices when it comes to content whether that is on-demand video and audio (both music and podcasts), video games plus endless streams of articles and social media posts. Nobel Laureate Herbert A. Simon noticed this trend already in the now relatively content-scarce year of 1971, but it gave rise to the concept of the attention economy. Broadly, the idea is that in an era in which information is plentiful, consumers’ time and attention becomes a scarce resource. While the democratisation of media as it was described at the conference might seem liberating, that still does not mean that you’ll be able to build a successful media business or brand. 

With this oversupply of entertainment and information, it meant that the digital returns for digital businesses were lower than they were for publishers and broadcasters during the era of relative scarcity. It’s simple economics, and I used to quote Clay Shirky who said that traditional economics is grounded in the allocation of scarce resources. Abundance breaks things in ways that we don’t entirely understand or at least our traditional business models aren’t based on. 

And now we have AI which is promising that is promising to be able to generate even more content than before without the intervention of human creators. In some ways, if AI is simply used to create more content more cheaply, it will have the paradoxical impact of adding to the oversupply of content and economically supporting that oversupply by cutting costs. 

Of course, as I pointed out, this generative form of AI is only one application, and smart publishers are using AI for personalisation to increase the relevance of their content and also using it to power dynamic paywalls to tailor offers for their audiences. This paywall technology goes far beyond the old binary of hard and metered paywalls and begins to allow a package to be offered to a wider range of customer segments based on their behaviour. 

Product Management and Digital Transformation

And the panel touched on digital transformation, which I think can be driven by adopting a product management process. In the post for Pugpig, I highlighted a process that we used in working with Foreign Affairs magazine to improve in-app listening for their podcasts. I generalised that process to this:

  1. Start with a goal. 
  2. Determine how to measure that goal and develop KPIs – both editorial and commercial. 
  3. Do audience research to understand why your audience is acting in a certain way. This step is really important. Use that research to inform your product. 
  4. Do user testing before release.
  5. Measure and iterate. 

And we were asked what we thought the biggest challenge would be for publishers in the future. Borrowing from what I learned in my master’s in innovation management, I said that the biggest challenge was that digital transformation was not a destination but a journey. They didn’t simply want to create a ‘fail fast’ culture that accepted experimentation but fostered a ‘learn quickly’ culture that made sure that those experiments built a learning culture that developed agility as a competitive advantage. 

Media companies adjust their subscription strategises as the market turns

INMA’s Greg Piechota looks at how media companies are tweaking their subscription strategies as profit margins are squeezed due to rising costs and a decline in advertising. As he points out, increasing subscription prices, which many publishers were doing last year, will not the strategy that allows them to continue to grow or offset their own price rises because customers are feeling the squeeze of inflation too. 

It was quite a day for coverage of how transformative AI is going to be for media. What’s New in Publishing has highlighted Nic Newman’s predictions about AI in his annual media outlook. And almost if on cue, there were a number of major stories that show how quickly the industry is moving and also start to highlight the guardrails that publishers will need to put in place as they experiment with the technology. 

Greg provides a well-informed look at what publishers are doing as economic indicators flash red. The New York Times is taking the long view and sticking to its strategy of increasing customer value but also growing its returns by building out its subscription bundle. But Greg’s analysis shows a widening gap between low-priced, low-retention brands and high-priced, high-retention publishers in the life-time value they can achieve in the coming years. This year will be another turn of the screw in the industry. 

And, as publishers spend more of their time and attention on retention efforts, What’s New in Publishing has a review on how to design your onboarding experience. 

The FT Strategies-Minna Technologies report we recently highlighted showed how publishers are pivoting to retention, but in reviewing customer behaviour, they found that audiences, especially younger ones, wanted services to help them manage their subscriptions. The Informed app is offering that service for publishers and has attracted a number of big names including the FT, The Economist, Bloomberg and the New York Times. My sense is that they see this as an on-ramp to their own subscription products. 

The AI revolution is just getting started 

Almost three in 10 of the publishers that Nic spoke to have already integrated AI into their operations, and nearly 40% are conducting some kind of experiments with the technology. And with the attention that ChatGPT has garnered, I would expect this activity to increase dramatically this year, especially with respect to AI fine-tuning subscription offers as publishers look for yield. 

We first started hearing about this major investment a week or so ago, and now it’s real. Microsoft had already made a $1bn investment in the non-profit OpenAI, and now, it is more than doubling down. You can imagine a number of AI applications that would enhance Microsoft’s offering, but the obvious one is super-charging its Bing search engine. Google has already been reported as seeing this a ‘code red’ challenge to its business, and it’s not as if the search giant isn’t working in this space. 

After increasing its transparency around its AI experiments, CNET has pushed pause and with good reason. Its AI is being accused of plagiarism. It would be fascinating to work with the engineers to develop an anti-plagiarism algorithm for an AI. 

While the Creator Economy might be hitting the down slope of the hype cycle, some creators have built new personal media empires, and this is a great case study of how Casey Johnston leveraged short stints in traditional media to build her own brand and business. 

…well, and also a look at how to choose your platform if you are a Revue refugee like I was.

Challenges for audio content creators 

Podcasts swelled its expenses and the revenue hasn’t materialised yet from those investments. 

A summary of a report out of the US on creating youth content (often co-creating with them) and how that can build relationships with younger audiences. The challenge is funding. Isn’t it always? Sigh. 

Today in the big platforms

A great review of Netflix’s challenges and how it has faced them in the past, which shows it might face its current post-pandemic audience challenge. 

I have to admit that I have been toying with whether to cross-publishing our newsletter at Pugpig on LinkedIn. I would be interested to hear your experience of publishing on LinkedIn. 

Meta continues to experiment with the metaverse, and live sports seem as good as any place. I’d be curious to see how this work, but I’m not feeling flush enough to buy the gear to see. 

Content consumption and creation changes: Under 25s turn away from email and new podcast creation plummets

2023 will definitely be a year of transition in media as the economy turns and consumer behaviour changes. Trends that media managers have assumed over the past few years have changed, and as ever, we’ll have to learn to adapt. The Verge is reporting that podcast creation plummeted in 2022. We’ll get to the reason in a minute. 

Bosses in Davos are saying that their under-25 staff don’t do email, which I have seen in the organisation where I work. We use email for external communications, but internally, it’s almost exclusively Slack. The question then becomes whether this will impact the efficacy of newsletters or whether this is like my office, a shift in internal comms rather than digital communication in general. 

Semafor co-founder Ben Smith casts an eye over billionaire-owned media. Is this era ending as billionaires’ interest and attention shift elsewhere? 

And lastly, if we look back to the middle of the last decade, there was a crop of new media darlings that looked like they would take over as legacy media faltered: Buzzfeed, Vice, Vox and Mic. But how the screw turns! Mic fizzled, and Buzzfeed has struggled mightily since its SPAC. Vox just announced layoffs, and Vice is putting itself on the block at a fraction of the asking price that it did just a few years ago. 

Plus: 

  • Spotify talks about how it uses agile coaches, and it’s a great opportunity for media companies to see how innovative tech companies adapt their delivery management practices. 
  • Google shifts its ad ops to third parties as cuts take hold at the company.
  • CNET drops its AI-generated content experiment for now.
  • Jean-Louis Gassée compares the current advances in AI to the dawn of the personal computer era.

Changes in the media market: Consumption, creation and ownership

It says it all in the first few paragraphs. Podcast creation has plummeted by 80% in the last two years. 

Does this mean that Gen Z doesn’t do email at all or just not at work? Do they retain the intimacy of the inbox for special communication? Or do they find instant messaging more intimate than email in most of their digital communications? This will take user research to find out. And that is important considering the importance of newsletters as an audience development and engagement tool. Do we need to expand that to channels and tools that resonate more with Gen Z? Good research will help answer that question and help media leaders set priorities. 

A look at the last decade of billionaire media ownership. They still haven’t cracked the business model issue. 

More details on Vice looking for a buyer. 

It is interesting to me to find out that Google is willing to outsource such a core part of its business. But with regulators circling, maybe they feel that they don’t have a choice. 

It is always instructive when a high-performing tech company pulls back the curtains on how it manages its operations. 

Jean-Louis Gassée compares the current era of AI to the early era of personal computers, and I think it’s apt. Just as with the beginning of that era, we have a number of powerful incumbents – Google, Apple, Meta and Amazon – not to mention a number of rising giants in China who are all rushing to take part in the AI boom. It will remake the tech landscape and the geopolitical balance of technology players for decades to come. 

We mentioned this last week, that CNET has been experimenting with AI-generated stories. They have pressed pause after a backlash, but we have had machine-generated journalism for a few years now, and I think the question really is about clear signposting and transparency about the inputs that inform such journalism. 

Changes in journalism: Cuts, the ‘Davos problem’ and PR outpacing journalism jobs in Canada

Whenever the economy hits a soft patch, there are layoffs in journalism, particularly at outlets that rely on advertising. Ad spend is highly correlated to the economic cycle, and while a number of organisations have insulated themselves to some extent with reader revenue, the drop in a key revenue stream still bites. This leads to a round of self-reflection and some adaptation. 

Vox is the latest media company to announce layoffs. It’s partly due to the economic cycle, but I would expect it would also relate to efficiencies that Vox is looking for after its merger with Group Nine. What’s interesting about these cuts is that they cut across the business. 

Hand wringing about business journalism in the wake Davos. 

A look at how data journalism is changing journalism. 

This has been a story that has been playing out across journalism and PR for the last 15 years. 

This is a post from 2018. Rafat Ali talks about how to land a job at his latest media startup, Skift, which covers the business of travel. 

Cuts at ‘passion platforms’ Patreon and Substack cast shadow over creator economy

As I write this, I think of the large (but not necessarily deep) cuts happening at tech giants Microsoft, Amazon and Google parent company Alphabet this week, 10,000, 18,000 and 12,000 employers respectively. It is an indication of how much the economy has shifted after the pandemic. But we’re also seeing it at tech firms that touch the media economy with Patreon and Substack making cuts as well, as our first item discusses. 

But the economic picture for media is complicated. Reuters is going to create 100 and relaunch its paywall. Axios Pro and its pricey professional newsletters are off to a strong strait. And non-profit news organisations are earning more with digital advertising. Meanwhile, Vice is trying to sell itself again, but this time the price is dramatically less, although it is still hoping for a nine-figure deal. 

I hope that you’re enjoying the newsletter here on Beehiiv. I’ve still got a little fiddling on the back-end to do, but feel free to drop me an email and let me know what you think and how I can improve it. 

This is a good overview of the layoffs at big tech. As Laura Hazard Owen points out, it must have been a bit chilling for Jeff Bezos to show up in the Washington Post newsroom just after massive layoffs at Amazon. I was having a conversation just yesterday with an astute industry watcher who was wondering whether Bezos has lost interest in owning a newspaper.  

For those journalists who launched their own newsletters or podcasts, Laura also points out – right in the headline – that times might be getting more challenging across these creator or “passion “ platforms. For a lot of journalists who have fled traditional jobs to become solopreneurs, this year will be a time that will test their business hypothesis. 

Reuters’ near-term future just got a little clearer. It already had a 30-year-deal with Refinitiv, of which it was spun out of, for content distribution. The London Stock Exchange Group bought Refinitiv, and now LSEG has expanded their deal with Reuters. It’s good news for job seekers. If they are London-based, the next challenge will be to find someplace to live. 

The devil is in the details on this one, but Axios’ pricey Pro newsletter product is off to a strong start. In its first year, it has generated $2m. As Digiday points out, we don’t know how many of these subs have renewed after the first year, 

All you need to know is that it was shopping itself around for $5.7 bn in 2017. I wonder how the valuation of Buzzfeed is doing? 

The Media Briefing highlights how some publishers are pushing their events back to later in the year in the hopes that the economy will improve. This is the second story that I’ve seen about this so I expect the events industry to be a little quieter in the first half of this year. 

A good piece in Adweek looking at how nonprofit newsrooms are starting to win more digital advertising. It’s important to have diversified revenue sources. The important thing will be to track these figures as the economy moves through this cycle. 

A mini-social media roundup

Twitter’s chaos seems almost designed to run it into the ground, and now we hear – not unsurprisingly – that it’s driving even less traffic to news sites. And the BBC pivots to TikTok after keeping its distance. That’s intriguing. 

Why and when journalism leaders decide to go

The Reynolds Journalism Institute has an interesting piece filled with interviews with journalism leaders about why thy decided to step down when they did. You’ve got the founder of the Texas Tribune and VTDigger (a great indie news site in Vermont) as well as the former leader at ProPublica. It’s interesting and also highlights the importance of succession planning. 

And we have an interesting piece of industry news with the US head of digital journalism for the BBC deciding to jump ship less than four months after he started. Did he just get an offer he couldn’t refuse or is there something else going on at the Beeb? 

Trust in Journalism low, and how to improve that

Edelman’s annual trust barometer shows that journalists are amongst the least trusted people. With the constant verbal attacks that high profile leaders around the world have levelled at the profession, it’s easy to see why. And I applaud people like Nic Newman at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism in calling on journalists to wrestle with how to improve trust. 

I think that the Washington Post, ProPublica and the Texas Tribune offered up one way to build trust by hosting an AMA on Reddit about an investigation that they just finished into the school shooting at Uvalde in Texas last May in the US. It’s a great and human way to explain the choices that journalists make. Bravo. 

Publishers look past crypto and the metaverse as they embrace AI PLUS How YouTube has become the preferred platform for podcasters

Today, we take a look at what comes next in innovation at media groups, what technologies are being passed over and what technologies and formats media companies are investing in. As Chris Sutcliffe writes in his summary of the Media Moments 2022 report, the media is experiencing its own crypto winter as money flows out of this risky, speculative asset class as the era of easy money and pandemic stimulus packages end.

What is very much on the innovation for 2023 is AI and short-form video, and Digiday highlights how Betches Media is leaning into their success. And Chinese internet giant Tencent is trying to play catchup and develop a response to TikTok. 

Plus, we look at how YouTube is becoming a major platform for podcasters, and how a newsletter for how to live inexpensively in London grew its audience. With the cost of living crisis really biting not only Londoners but everyone in the UK, it seems to be at the right place and the right time. 

And don’t miss an interesting proposal for the future of Twitter. A hybrid cooperative run as a B corp social enterprise? 

Chris has some solid numbers here about how the Meta is simply not hitting its numbers when it coes to the Metaverse, despite aggressive advertising and promotion. And he also has a rundown of how far NFTs have fallen, although he expresses cautious optimism that their is still room for innovation. 
However, the area where he see the most investment and interest is AI. 

Speaking of AI, Brian Morrissey offers up some predictions. Marketing and advertising copy will go first he says. Search will become a mess, but he also sees AI as continuing to rebalance power from institutions to individuals. I’m not so sure about the creator economy getting a boost from that, but AI will definitely be a key area of technological development and disruption. ChatGPT is just the beginning, and investment will flow into this area as major players look to ensure that they are as dominant in the future as they have been in the past.  

Speaking of AI, transparency will be a major issue. CNET has been experimenting with it, but some have accused the tech site of not being clear on what it was doing. It’s trying to do that now. 

YouTube as a podcast platform should not be a surprise, and Morning Consult has some fascinating numbers that show a complicated picture of the relationship between video and podcast listening. 

The idea is so simple: A newsletter full of free events for people in London. I remember back in the day in Washington DC that there was something similar – a happy hour listing where unpaid or low-pad interns could get free snacks with their drinks. Note, word of mouth has been important but so has good, old local BBC radio. The relationship between emerging and traditional media often has a symbiotic element. 

Developments in vertical, short-form video

The story about Betches Media, which is focused on serving young women, is another data point about the importance of YouTube. They are experimenting with YouTube Shorts. Why? Because it ties into their podcast strategy. I spot a trend. 

And not only is Tencent placing a big bet on social video, newsletter startup Morning Brew just bought Our Future because it gives them a foothold in short-form video. 

Industry news: A mixed bag of growth and inflation-fuelled losses

When we put together our State of the Digital publishing report at Pugpig, we heard a lot of stories about increased costs, and that is playing out as media groups report their results. DC Thomson and National World both saw increases in revenue, but increased energy and paper costs have taken a bite of healthy revenue as pandemic lockdowns ended. 

Twitter as a social enterprise? And what next for your career

This an interesting proposal for a hybrid-cooperative model: a social enterprise. The one major hitch that I see is the sums that would be required to buy out Musk and his backers. However, as he drives the company into the ground, creditors may be willing or be forced to accept pennies on the dollar. 

As media jobs become not only rarer but also the path to senior roles becomes more difficult, a former BBC journalist discusses how to make a personal pivot in 2023.