links for 2008-04-10

Confessing a dirty little secret

In January’s Fast Company was an article by Clive Thompson, Is The Tipping Point Toast? I read it with interest and made a mental note to at least add it to our Del.icio.us feed. But over the last two months it has just been gnawing away at the back of my head and I find myself compelled to think about it in a bit more detail.

In the article, Clive discusses the work of Yahoo!’s principal research scientist, Duncan Watts, who is challenging the idea that a small number of highly influential people are the ones who start new trends. The concept is central to books such as Malcolm Gladwell’s The Tipping Point, and is repeated over and over again in all sorts of contexts. In fact, it is so embedded in the way that we view how ideas are transferred and propagated between people that it feels almost like heresy to question it.

But Duncan Watts has questioned it, and his research seems to show that new trends can start anywhere, and that not only do you not have to be influential to start a trend, being influential doesn’t guarantee that you are also a trendsetter.

In the past few years, Watts–a network-theory scientist who recently took a sabbatical from Columbia University and is now working for Yahoo –has performed a series of controversial, barn-burning experiments challenging the whole Influentials thesis. He has analyzed email patterns and found that highly connected people are not, in fact, crucial social hubs. He has written computer models of rumor spreading and found that your average slob is just as likely as a well-connected person to start a huge new trend. And last year, Watts demonstrated that even the breakout success of a hot new pop band might be nearly random. Any attempt to engineer success through Influentials, he argues, is almost certainly doomed to failure.

“It just doesn’t work,” Watts says, when I meet him at his gray cubicle at Yahoo Research in midtown Manhattan, which is unadorned except for a whiteboard crammed with equations. “A rare bunch of cool people just don’t have that power. And when you test the way marketers say the world works, it falls apart. There’s no there there.”

This is a conclusion that’s going to get up the nose of many a marketeer, but how does it affect social media consultants?

My work is focused mainly on how to persuade people in business to change their behaviour: how to replace bad working habits with good ones, and how to change unhealthy business cultures into positive, constructive ones. How do I help people wean themselves off their dependence on email, and learn how to collaborate and communicate in healthier, more effective ways?

The opportunities that social tools present to business are frequently missed because no one thought hard enough about how to introduce them to people. Most businesses fail to to understand why these tools are useful and why the old tools are so seductive. My job is to counter that, and is much more about psychology than technology (although the tech clearly does play a part).

Piloting social tools in business is relatively easy. You’re working with a small group who have probably been picked because someone within that group is already enthusiastic. I can sit down and work face-to-face with these people, finding out how they work and then explaining how the new tools will help them. We can figure out specific tasks to shift onto the new tools, I can advise on how that shift should happen and I can support them through the change.

But rolling social media out to the rest of a large company takes a different way of working. I can probably work directly with tens, or maybe even over a hundred people – if the project has the time and budget – but no one person can sit down with thousands or tens of thousands of people in one company to make sure that they understand how the new tools could improve their working life. It would be a Sisyphean task.

Instead, we have to treat tool adoption as a meme, and rely on people propagating it through the company, person to person. In this sense, we are doing what marketeers are doing: Trying to create a self-sustaining trend. We want the social tool to go viral.

As anyone with real world experience of viral marketing will tell you, that’s far easier said than done. The concept of an influential elite, a minority who have the majority of the power to influence, is a deeply attractive prospect. If it were true, it would mean that I could sit down with the 50 most influential people in any one company and bring them up to speed, and they would go on to do my work for me. I could change the culture of a business from closed to open, from distrustful to trusting, from competitive to collaborative, in merely a few weeks.

That is a seductive idea. And I must confess to you all now, I have been seduced by it. I have talked with clients about the concept of networks and nodes and bridges, and I have propagated the tipping point meme. I’ve never read Gladwell’s book. I haven’t had to – I’ve absorbed the concepts over time without really questioning them, without examining them in the cold light of day.

But deep down, I never really believed the idea of an elite group of influencers, and that disbelief has grown over the last couple of years as I’ve had more and more hands-on experience in business, introducing new tools to a suspicious workforce. I have asked businesses if they know who their influencers are, and they all claimed that they did, but I didn’t really see any evidence either that I was actually talking to influencers, or that the people they thought were influencers made any real difference to the widespread adoption of a tool.

That is my dirty little secret. I propagated a meme that I hadn’t critically examined and didn’t believe in. For that, I apologise.

Yet, for me at least, the idea that ‘influencers’ aren’t as influential as we’ve been lead to believe is good news. And for my clients too. I’ve always been worried that trying to tap into a network of influential staff was a pointless waste of time, because it’s very hard to know who actually has influence and who’s just got a big mouth. Identifying the influencers is a task inextricably bound up in status and position in the org chart, yet these three things do not correlate simply. A bad manager who’s high up in the food chain may believe himself to have status, but is actually widely ignored by his subordinates because they can recognise a bad manager when they see one.

If you’ve read my social software adoption strategy, you’ll see there’s nothing in it about ‘reaching the influencers’. I’m way too pragmatic, and the problem of influencer identification has always put me off recommending it as a tactic. Instead, I focus on how you identify ‘low hanging fruit’ – people who are already chomping at the bit to work differently, or people who are doing tasks that are just perfect for a transition onto a social platform. Those are doable tasks. They don’t require any special magic, they just require the ability to ask the right questions and listen to the answers.

I also talk about converting users into trainers by giving them the materials and confidence to introduce their own colleagues to new tools. Centralised training can only fail when you’re trying to introduce optional software to a huge workforce. The only way to reach large numbers of people is for a ripple effect to take over: users become trainers and train their colleagues who become users and then trainers who spread the virus throughout the company.

This doesn’t require influence, it requires utility. If the tool is useful, it can succeed, given the right support. It’s not, “Oh, look at this! It’s so cool!”; it’s, “Oh, look at this! It’s going to make my life so much easier!”

I’m far happier with the idea that anyone can start a trend, and that the concept of influencers is at least less important than previously stated, or possibly even a complete red herring. It leaves the door open for much more sensible, reliable and workable strategies. Admittedly, they may take more time and effort, but at least the outcome will be more predictable. Focusing on what people need, instead of their status, can only be a good thing.

Are we the signal or the noise?

I recorded this video for a project that the Guardian is doing with Current TV. I recorded it after reading a post by a friend and one of my heroes

, Steve Yelvington, in the wake of the recent conflagration over Barack Obama and his former pastor Jeremiah Wright. Steve asked whether we were listening. We could be interpreted as journalists, politicians, pundits as well as the public.

Today I see journalism falling into two traps. One is the passive abandonment of responsibility that sometimes comes along with the “objective” mode, and the other is the crass exploitation of divisive opportunities that you see from infotainers like Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck and Lou Dobbs.

And that brings us back to my point. Is anyone listening? And is the press helping us all listen? Are we working to further understanding?

Or are journalists just parroting words and perpetuating the racial divide that has scarred this country throughout its history?

It’s one of the things that many journalists don’t do enough of when they blog: Listen. That’s one of the important skills for a blogging journalist. Blogging is not just publishing my thoughts. I can do that in any old media. Blogging is about the conversation.

Why I’ve chosen to do the kind of journalism I do is that I see great potential in being able to foster civic discussion and participation using the internet. It hearkens to the ideals of journalism that I learned as a j-school student. I really don’t understand why more journalists don’t see it.

As I said in the video and the discussion that followed on Current, I want to find ways to expand who is taking part in these discussions and actually explore important issues. As a journalist, I can add some reporting to provide a for some of the issues, which isn’t to say that the participants can’t add their own reporting. There is such scope to explore the issues of the day and be in a constant, rolling, evolving conversation. It’s exciting territory to explore.

But too often, either through neglect or active provocation, the media are turning these online spaces into brawls. It’s not surprising. It mirrors talk radio, cable news shouting matches and some bizarre version of Jerry Springer for intellectuals. The media is just turning the internet into what it knows. Bring on the noise.

But isn’t good journalism supposed to amplify the signal, find it in the noise? Aren’t journalists supposed to help find the important data points, turning points to help people and themselves make sense of the world? It’s an abdication of our professional responsibility if we stop trying to find the signal and become the noise.

That’s not going to save our profession. It’s not going to help use cut through the clutter in this very busy media landscape. But it’s easier to try to shout above the crowd than to find the wisdom in it. It’s easier to be provocative than to be thought provoking. I don’t have much time for it, and increasingly, neither do our former audiences.

links for 2008-04-05

links for 2008-04-04

F2C: Clay Shirky

Research from the book Here Comes Everybody, and one of the stories was about a bus company that sued some cleaning women who car pooled, by saying that they were stealing their business. They petitioned the French gov’t to take way the women’s cars. Same mentality that’s going on in the music industry. Can lead to two mindsets: let’s take advantage of new opportunity; or let’s try to maintain the status quo.

French court threw the case out, but took two years during which these women had to defend themselves.

In Canada, a car pool scheme was shut down by a bus company because they said it was an illegal bus service.

Book tagline: group action just got a lot easier. Only four other media revolutions of this magnitude: the printing press; telegraph and telephone; rise of recordable media; rise of broadcast. Ones that creative large groups didn’t create two-3way communications and the ones that created two-way communications didn’t create large groups.

Now the internet does both. Going to end up in a world where the triple play goes away because there’s no triple. First new communication pattern of the internet is the many-to-many pattern. What we’ve done with this is LOLcats. But freedom is freedom, freedom to be banal as much as to be important.

Three stories that demonstrate the way that the tools don’t set the conditions for use, once you open up group communications you open up the possibility for them to be used for both silly things and important things.

Summer 2006, HSBC recruited a bunch of college students and recent grads, offering free overdraft. That summer HSBC rescinded that offer, giving students 30 days to switch accounts. HSBC knew they had the power, because the students weren’t on campus so couldn’t co-ordinate, and the switching cost is high.

But an annoyed student puts a page up on Facebook, and people started posting detailed explanations of how to change banks and discussing deals. When one person had done the work, everyone could benefit.

Then the students started the online protests, media picked it up. Then a real world protest in front of HSBC, which never happened because HSBC totally caved. PR guys says that they don’t want to make people unhappy, but HSBC didn’t back down because their customers were unhappy, but because they were unhappy and co-ordinated. Up until a few years ago HSBC enjoyed the informational and organisational advantages.

People now can assemble in a system that gives us an ability to bring some organisational solvency against the institutions that previously had an advantage over us.

There was nothing complex in the tech. Most of the effort behind Facebook is scaling, but being able to put a web page up goes back to ’94. It wasn’t the tool, it was a question of social density. If 10% of the students had been online, you wouldn’t have got the leverage that 100% of the students had. This stuff doesn’t get socially interesting until it gets technologically boring.

Question at last talk [at the RSA, as blogged by Kevin], asked what is the most important tool that’s coming up, expecting an answer like Twitter. But the answer is email, because that’s what people are comfortable with. If your mum is going to get involved in something, it’s going to be by using email, it’s the backloaded weight of society using these tools that’s important.

Second story. Flash mobs. Gathering to engage in a moderately surprising behaviour. Flash mobs organised by Bill from New York, as a critique of the braindeadness of hipster culture. That they would set aside a sense of judgement to do something that they thought would be mildly insulting to the bourgeoisie. Flash zombies, etc.

Then happens in Minsk, a Flash mob to go to October Square eating ice cream. But in the photos documenting it there are ones of secret police dragging the people out of the square. Illegal to act in concert in October Square. Lushenko, president of Belarus, stole election in March 06, and banned group activity to forestall protest.

In order to protest that they needed a countervailing action. So decided on flash mobs. Can’t penetrate group because it’s all online. And can’t prevent the group gathering because they don’t gather as a group until last moment.

It’s not just the tool, it’s the environment. In freer environments tools are used to distraction; in oppressed environments they are used for political statements.

Twitter was launched and people said that it was the stupidest thing ever and a sign of the end times. Pro-democracy activists in Cairo using Twitter to keep an eye on people who have been arrested, keeping track of who’s in custody. If people know you are in custody, you might end up there longer, but are less likely to be tortured. Twitter makes it possible to have the group aware. Tools in high-freedom environments are trivial, in low-freedom environments can be profoundly important.

Third story, wished it was in the book. Group in Palermo, 2004, ran around stickering the town saying that if you pay the mafia you lack dignity. Got a lot of media attention.

Then realised that media wasn’t enough. Can only create awareness. Created website to allow businesses to stand up together to defy the mafia. If people did that alone then their businesses were destroyed and people sometimes killed. So far, as they are doing it as a group. and no one has been killed.

The relationship between the mafia and business is the same as Lushenko and the protesters, and HSBC and the students. Power differential. Co-ordination problem solved for customers, students, protesters.

So in Palermo they did a site that allows you to only trade with companies that don’t pay the mafia. Provided a co-ordinating layer for a population that shared a problem.

Thinking is for doing. Similar thing is happening to media. Publishing is for acting. It doesn’t just create shared awareness it creates the possibility of a platform for co-ordination, not just say something but do something. In Belarus, the Live Journal page lead to collective action, but that led to more media, as the protesters weren’t just out there to force the state to react, they were there to document. They brought their cameras, they wanted those photos online, they wanted to use the collective action to create more media to spread the message. Create a complete circle. Nothing says dictator like arresting someone for eating ice-cream.

They’ve done it several time. They went round October Square smiling at each other. There’s a problem for the cops.

Capability for media to be not just a source of information but a site for action is starting to be manifested in ordinary society. That’s a really big change, and it’s something to be optimistic about.

But the big asterisk. The danger to this new freedom to act is principally a regulatory one. If you lived in a society that wanted freedom of speech and freedom of the press, but there were some actions you couldn’t take part in, like libel, and they wanted no chilling effects and no prior restraint. Seems like a list you can only pick two from.

Yet we all live in a world like that, or have until recently, but law isn’t internal to itself. The law grows around the society it’s in. And recently there was one very salient fact about media – it was done by professionals. Power comes form the neck of a bottle. The expense of owning a printing press, having access to spectrum, creates not just an engineering bottle neck, but also created a class of professionals committed to the long term viability of that bottle.

So end up in a game of prisoners’ dilemma. People running TV or news, are involved in a tit for tat relationship with government. They think twice about publishing some things because they are concerned about ability to still publish. Government can identify list of places content can come from.

Teaches at NYU, average age of students has remained the same whilst his age increases at a steady rate of one year per year. Has had to start teaching 80s/90s as ancient history. Have to explain what the media landscape was like. But the sticking point, the thing that they don’t really grok is that prior to the mid-90s, if you have something to say in public you couldn’t. You had to get permission from someone else to say something in public.

The regulatory structures look for a new class of professionals to interact with. Find new people that they want to watch what’s going on, whom they want to rope into the same system they used to have the publishers/broadcasters in.

The domain name system is the thing that looks to the regulators most like the old publishing industry. Can remove domain names to remove access to sites.

So we have to get the engineering right, and have to realise that a degree of centralisation is also where the threat of the reintroduction of this class of regulation is.

Used to be that freedom of speech and freedom of the press were different, and different to freedom of assembly. Now have a medium that provides all three freedoms together. Not just a net win but a huge new win. There are downsides, though. But biggest threat is to prevent the TSE-style ‘we’ll sue you til you behave like the bus commuters you used to be’. Have to watch out for that.

Q: What about future shock. People can’t deal with lots of change happening very quickly. Danger is backlash.

The really interesting example is from about two years ago this month, where 40,000 high school students organised a walk out to protest anti-immigration. Organised in 2 days, using MySpace and SMS. None of the school admin saw it coming. The reaction to that was to lock the doors in school the next day, even locking the classroom doors.

When you move from iterated relationship to one-off transaction is that the punishments become a lot more draconian. Have to raise the threat level so high it puts people off trying. The thing that worries my most is that these one off political event is that the threat of punishment is going to become very extreme. That’s the bit that worries me most.

Q: Ask more about gatekeepers and the media. My understanding is that there were a lot of pamphlets early on in our history. When did that change? It wasn’t how the system was designed.

What we know of as a corporation didn’t exist then as it does now. There were committees of correspondence, discussions, letters going from group to group and they’d discuss them informally. What happened is economies of scale, as long as there are unit costs for individual copies, or there are economies of scales for geographic reach they are going to privilege the largest actors. The link of economies of scale with economy of tension, you can publish your own newspaper but it’s hard to support a vibrant newspaper culture.

Reversion of lots of engagement at lots of levels.

Q: Sophistication of revolt. Any insight into Tibet?

Looking at protests in Leipzig in 91, people banging pots and pans walking round the square. Gov’t didn’t crack down because it didn’t seem worth it, but every week a few more people joined. By the time it got to the thousands, by that Sept, the gov’t said that they were going in, and the next week 10,000 people showed.

Gov’ts learned from that, don’t let any protests happen. the mistake by that gov’t was not to round up the initial 50 and throw them in jail.

In Tibet, that information cascade has accelerated. So new cat/mouse protest game is how quickly can you get big enough to cross a threshold that the whole world is watching. In Burma, everyone’s watching. Getting media out stiffens people’s spines. the acid test will be if there is a significant protest on the opening day of the Olympics in China. There’s more willingness to imagine that because of the visible protest coming out of Tibet. There’s evidence that the protest is happening and people are aware of that.

Shared awareness is the precursor of action. The protest moved from ‘everybody knows’ to ‘everybody knows that everybody knows’.

Q: Domain name issue. Saw that bottleneck coming. It’s more than the gov’t seeking to enforce laws, it’s the IP owners seeking to enforce more than their existing rights. what do you recommend?

The thing that made me saddest was when the idea of just having hundreds of TLDs. There’s no insuperable constraint to having hundreds. Abundance is the natural state of the internet. Any scarcity is at the least a failure of the model in one layer of the stack. The problem right now is that because it’s a name space problem and not an engineering problem, it seems to me that there is, given the way the system is now, there is no good alternative. Plan B ought to be having a bunch of non-US LTDs pointing at your domain that don’t rely on the largesse of the US gov’t. Can’t see that there’s a way, short of a fork of the root name server which is a worse solution than a problem. When a domain name goes away i can’t see a good way or reaching the audience that relied on that domain name.

Regulatory solution is the only solution. Need to keep on to ICANN. If you could go back in time, mid-84 is a good way to go back and say these root name servers are going to be a problem. But it was v. different then.

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F2C: Carbon Negative Internet II

Robin Chase
Often think about the past, Anne Frank or Elizabeth Eckford. Are we heroic people?

Climate change. Careful with what science she chooses, but are looking at a possible catastrophic change with massive species loss.

Predictions look at what’s going to happen by 2020 or 2050. Looking at cap and trade, and CO2 reductions, but these aren’t happening any time soon. Alternative fuels, are another one. But if we bought fuel efficient cars we could make a difference now.

We need to act within the next 2-3 years in order to make the difference we need to. Many technological solutions aren’t going to do anything in that time frame. Need to change behaviour now, e.g. by using a carbon tax.

Strong believer in the realm that low cost and ubiquitous data bits are important, need face upload, manipulation and download of information, so can share resources efficiently, group intelligence, expert intelligence.

US CO2 emissions, 29% is the car. People talk about light bulbs, but your residential utility bill at 17%, and lighting is 13% of the 17%. Last thing Americans want to do. Can’t let that car sector linger til last.

Zipcars, parked through cities, for users to use by the hour or day, reservations online. Behaviour change, this is a great example. Because you’re paying for your car by the hour, all your sunk costs and variable costs are lumped together. If your car’s in your driveway you can drive to get ice cream, but if you have to hire the car out then you won’t spend $10 to hire it to get ice cream.

Zipcar people drive about 90% less than people who own a car. Using it selectively an appropriately. This is 100% tech enabled. Could never have done this if it weren’t so easy to book the car.

GoLoco, trying to do for ride sharing what they did for car sharing. Ave American spends 18% of their income on their car. So was coming to Washington, so booked the flight, then booked the car on Zipcar, then put trip on GoLoco, and someone wanted to share the car on that trip. The man who wanted to share the trip turned out to be going to the same conference, to be able to do the navigating etc.

So if you can’t not have a car, at least you can share it with someone else.

Paris. Free bikes, going one way for half an hour with no charge. Are distributed every four blocks. Share networks can transform the way we think about things.

Also looking at congestion charging and road pricing. How do we build out that infrastructure. $500m spent in Stockholm to do a pilot, but didn’t end up with a wireless city. So trying to get US gov’t to make these networks more open.

These are places we can look to get most stuff done. Need to create Infrastructure 2.0, distributed and created by end users.

Financing 2.0, don’t need one person spending billions, but we can each spend a little bit.

Bill St. Arnaud
Two biggest challenges: global warming and broadband infrastructure. If we do not do something now about global warming we will have problem and we need substantive changes.

ICT industry produces same amount of CO2 as the entire aviation industry. ICT energy consumption increasing, Co2 will double by 2010.

Big aspect of internet is datacentres, Facing serious challenges from energy perspective. By 2008% have insufficient power and cooling, by 2010, 50% of data centres will have to relocate due to power shortages.

Not just climate change, but also an energy challenge.

Need two step approach, we need to reduce our own carbon emissions, and we can reduce it to zero. Can use the internet to promote or induce consumers to reduce their own carbon footprints.

A lot of talk about energy efficiency from vendors, but this is wrong. Increased energy efficiency increases usage. Seems counter-intuitive. Last energy crisis legislated for improved efficiency, so if driving is cheaper and homes are cheaper to heat/cool, then people drive more and get bigger homes. End up with more consumption and more energy usage.

These ideas need to be examined closely. If we decrease energy use, consumers buy more.

Need to look at zero carbon, look at now internet and broadband architectures. Not just reduce carbon emissions, but make them zero.

If you have high speed internet you can relocate data centres anywhere in the world, e.g. to Iceland where there is geothermal energy.

Access to power in going to be harder in our cities, and increased demand for green power. Lots of untapped renewable power in remote areas, but no other industries can access that as they need to be close to customers. Data centres can move and use them. Need to get them to remote locations where the power is untapped and cheap.

Initiatives in Canada, as well as Iceland and Lithuania, to do that. In Canada, using renewable energy. Using sites that are unused, and where it’s uneconomical to move the electricity to where it’s needed.

Plans to build small data centres lined by windmills and optical networks. Windmill not connected to electrical grid. Distributed across Nova Scotia as low cost and reliable data centres.

That’s the sort of thinking we need. Project in Canada, next generation internet to reduce global warming. Lots of big companies in a research consortium, to look at future internet architecture that has a zero carbon footprints. Incremental energy efficiency isn’t enough, need a radical rethink. New ways of building wireless networks, infrastructure, etc.

Got to solve this problem for this industry, then maybe we can look at other sectors and help them too.

Worldwide, carbon taxes would probably be the best solution, but it’s a very difficult thing to sell anywhere else in the world. Problem is the gov’t get addicted to them as they have with other ‘sin taxes’. Even if money is supposed to go back into the climate but it will get siphoned off.

Carbon offsets, lots of companies being sent up to sell/trade carbon offsets. Can make money out of it, these companies will audit your reduction of carbon and will sell those offsets to other companies. Getting a bad name, desperately needs regulation.

What about carbon rewards? Helps change behaviour. This is not just sack cloth and ashes, there are good business opportunities too.

Consumers control 65% of the Co2 emissions, 35% directly, 25% influenced. Need to induce consumers to change their behaviour.

Canada also struggling to build out fibre to the home. Can’t make money on selling infrastructure, need to offer services. But voice and TV revenues are declining, as more of those services move to the internet. Many UK companies give away internet, so how do ISPs compete with free? Everyone is struggling. What is the business case? Specially if you have to open u p your network and let competitors in.

Project in Ottawa, providing free fibre and internet, bundling with gas and electric bill, so pay extra on your energy bill but if you reduce your consumption you can get internet for free. Incentive to allow consumers to reduce energy.

Electric and gas resellers are no utilities, very gungho, keen to work on this. Bundling internet with energy isn’t new, but the incentive might make it more attractive.

Ideas like this, rather than imposing taxes but providing rewards to reduce carbon footprint is a different model for reducing global warming.

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F2C: Carbon Negtive Internet

Kathy Brown – Verizon
Been trying to find tools to conserve energy and become energy efficient since the 80s. Need to think about how we bring down our energy uses, become more efficient, and yet the use of high speed iTC isn’t part of the discussion. Proposition is that we are not going to reach the efficiencies we want to reach without high speed broadband networks.

In the 90s we talked about the productivity gains we could make through the internet, and those gains were achieved with respect to manufacturing, inventory, and many other things. This technology, the internet, and what was attached to it at the edges has caused us to rethink the way we do things. The growth of broadband is something we need to pay attention to. The kind of penetration, of 53.5 m broadband lines, 49m connect homes, and that’s a significant change to the infrastructure that connects all of us.

The high speed networks helps to save energy. Shouldn’t think just about the energy we use to run the internet.

Global C02 emissions 2% come from tech needed for the internet. Verizon, Cisco, BT, are thinking about how to bring down that two percent. But need to focus on the other 98%, and idea we can affect that by better use of the broadband and the internet.

For every extra kilowatt hour consumed by ICT, US economy’s energy saves has increased ten times, but haven’t optimised it. Discuss efficiencies in our homes, but not about this.

Broadband by itself doesn’t solve the problem, but it can be used as a tool, and need to think about how that could be.

Study at Verizon. Spent our time thinking about major issues confronting customers, and how do we think about the use of broadband. Broadband can decrease our dependence on oil by 11% over next 10 years.

Look at savings through telecommuting, teleconferencing, e-conservaction, e-commerce. Makes a bit difference if we focus on this. e-conservation, e.g. saving plastic by providing download instead of CD.

Telecommuting/Teleconferencing. All tried this, all not done this. All too jerky, and so we walked away from it. Cisco has a product using high-speed lines, and provides a clear picture that overcomes the human problem with conferencing. but an expensive product. Smaller product for retail home.

That fidelity overcomes the problem that people say they just can’t use this stuff. 600m tonnes of CO2 from telecommuting. Saving jet fuel by not travelling to India is the same as cost of year’s teleconferencing twice a week.

What does broadband speed have to do with this? people won’t wait, and if it doesn’t work fast they walk away from it. Net is so much faster. Things people want come faster and easier, e.g. downloading music and books. E.g. CDs in a plastic jewel box with further plastic wrapping, and you have to go to the store and come home. Downloading that music means that none of that happens.

Books, you can download the book with no paper, no travel. But if you have to go to the store to get it, then a 20 mils round trip is 1 gallon of petrol, where as shipping packages 100 miles consumes only 0.1 gallons, because of the aggregation effect of mass shipping.

Savings in carbon, energy efficiency, etc.

These are logical, but there are so much more. The way we consume and produce things is saving energy. Haven’t tried to quantify that or figure out what the right metric is.

You can’t produce a product that’s greener without making its smarter. These notions have to be married. All growth has to be smart, green growth.

Housing. We’ve talked about this forever. Can networked ICT bring down energy usage in homes? Power Authority in NY is experimenting. WWF study reports 10/15% savings in energy using wireless connected thermostat. In a connected home, where the entire home is connected by networked ITC, you can control energy all over the house.

New world of broadband and wireless, as 4G comes, more machine-to-machine will happen, so can achieve more efficiencies.

Smart transportation. To be more fuel efficient, UPS used a GPS technology to help its drivers never to make a left turn (right turn in the UK!). Company shaved 28.5 million miles off it’s route, saving 3m gallons of petrol, reduced Co2 by 31, tons. used GPS and mapping, which allowed drivers to map a route where they don’t make a left-hand turn.

Dash – which send data to traffic behind to help them avoid traffic jams. Location, mapping, directions, brings the powerless of the net to car navigation. If it works it’ll be cool and solve part of our energy problems.

In Indiana, new network and being used to become more energy efficient. Community brings down its energy usage, can start scaling what a networked world can look like. About smart heating and cooling, energy efficient appliances.

Speed matters – the faster these networks are the more efficient they are and the more efficient they make human beings, but also them ore efficient they make machine to machine connectivity.

Verizon. Lifecycle management, recycling equipment, paperless billing reduced paper use by 400 tons of carbon, video conferencing, hybrid cars and vans make up 49% of fleet, and experimenting with fuel cells in central offices.

Broadband can play a greater role in facilitating energy efficiency. Need public policies to speed ubiquitous deployment; dev of innovative applications at community level which promote efficient behaviours; business leadership through legislation like cap-and-trade.

Kevin Moss – BT
Climate change is affecting BT business now, e.g. where to put data centres when there’s increased flooding. South coast of the UK could end up with a climate like the Med by middle of this century, which will have impact on things like cooling needs.

Globescan maps top national problem in each country – for Canada, UK, Australia, they think environment is key.

Lots of research on this. There are positive and negative effects. Licence to talk about the positive depends on doing something about the negative.

BT takes a direct approach, consumes 0.7% of all UK’s energy. Then addresses their products’ lifecycle; enabled reductions, then influencing employees.

Started measuring carbon footprint in 90s. 1996 it was 1.6m tonnes of Co2, not it’s down to 0.6m tonnes. Want to reduce to 0.3m by 2016. But have got the low hanging fruits and now need to make some significant and substantive changes.

Changing business processes, using energy efficient devices, and use energy from renewable sources.

Examples: 2004, signed biggest green contract in the world for energy, renewed in 2007. A lot of energy consumed in data centre is to cool the equipment, which is itself wasting energy as heat. They cool just the back of the server and not the whole room, using curtains to isolate racks.

Vendors specify operating temp, so when they buy new equipment they raised the operating temp that they were looking for, so that resulted in less cooling required. Also using solar energy for new office in California data centre.

When a product goes to a customer, such as broadband, one problem was that they were enabling people to run computers, for e.g., more of the time.

They are making products more environmentally friendly, e.g. phones which switch off power supply when battery is charged. Move from a paradigm of ‘always on’ equipment, to always available when we want it. In business, there’s a lot of requirement still to keep computers on overnight because of software patching etc., but need to work harder to always available.

Work with customers to help them understand their own data centres and how they can save energy. Came from having done it themselves.

Energy Insight’s top 10 prediction for 07., and five of them are about IT, one important one is the intelligent energy grid, as internet can make connection between demand side and supply side.

Impact Bt can have on the world around them to inform employees and public. Teenager game, Intrigue 2016, based around teaching about Stern report. Living Lightly, people can add pledges to site of what they are going to do. And internally, they have a ‘carbon club’ to encourage savings.

Finally, affecting government. In last year, have struggled to continue reduction, so are getting involved in influencing policy in this area. After Stern Report came out, an industry response came out in support of findings, and if anything said gov’t needs to do more, quicker, with a predictable path of regulation. Proposal regarding electricity labelling. So engaged in policy where previously they weren’t.

Bas Boorsma – Cisco
Was a slightly underemployed blogger, was enjoying his job. But 14 months ago, got a call offering him to work on using ICT to reduce carbon emissions. Programme to partner with cities to work with IT to create new products, services, proof of concepts, to create a more sustainable way of living, working, learning, transport. Five year commitment.

Public/private partnership. Three cities: San Francisco, Amsterdam, Seoul. Each has a lot of IT companies. Each ready to engage. Each has a lot of broadband, which is the basis for these solutions.

Not called sustainable urban dev, but connected urban dev, as the connected aspect is important.

Activists trying to ensure cities become green, and others making cities connected, so need to be green and connected. IT can do 10x more to save energy than it takes energy to run.

Change processes, change patterns of transport, education, healthcare, commerce, all together. Bring the information to the user not the user to the information. We don’t do this – people travel to work, and then you email lots of other places, which totally doesn’t make sense. Replace ‘information’ with ‘water’ it’s more visible. Have the technology to change all this, it’s not an opportunity it’s a necessity.

Talking to other cities, and are specialising in one particular area so their findings can be shared with other cities. Amsterdam focuses on smart work; SF on green smart connected bus; other cities are rethinking entire urban design all together; Lisbon is working on smart energy grids.

Amsterdam is one of the most congested regions in Europe. Some predictions say traffic in Amsterdam will grind to a halt in 2/3 years. Sense of urgency in policy makers, and want to know what they can do for connected urban development. Road pricing is an issue in the minds of policy makers around the world, some people like it, some hate it. Road pricing becomes an imperative solution, but if you get it out there you also have to think about creating sufficient alternatives. Alternative of public transport is a myth, it won’t work. So need to look at different means, but need to ensure that citizens have information available on all options.

E-work. People regularly associate it with working from home, which is perfect and much more economic. Get to mix private life and work. But problems: disturbances from family and children. And if everyone were to stay at home, there would be another consequence which is people put up their thermostats at home, so have less efficient energy use there. Home environment is not a very professional environment, can’t do meetings there.

So instead create a smart work centre environment, which is close to where people live, but which provides a large packet of services. Smart Work Centre, “integrated service concept”, flexible work stations, conference rooms, child day care, restaurants, telepresence facilities etc.

What’s nice about telepresence is that it’s really new. Can insert into larger Amsterdam region because there’s already huge fibre deployment. Putting in telepresence facilities in all smart work centres, takes up 20mbps. Also looking at residential versions.

Cisco have 190 telepresence facilities worldwide, and saved $75 m in avoided travel, especially short-haul flights.

Getting pilot work centre required a lot of collaboration and work, and things are working and ready to open up.

Broadband is essential, high bandwidth and symmetry is essential to facilitate smart work environments. Can scale into home environments too. Forging required network capacity that allows for smart buildings, smart energy grids, smart urban transport systems and smart citizens.

Are we in time with this? May never know.

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