links for 2009-05-08

  • The worsening advertising climate is forcing many publishers, facing only modest online gains after a decade of digital investment, to consider charging for content. News Corp is considering a strategy that may involve e-readers, GMG is mulling charging for MediaGuardian.co.uk and doubtless others are wondering how to finally start making real profits from online traffic. But there are risks and challenges – here’s a rundown… —You can’t charge for abundance: First thing’s first – there is still a healthy market for business-critical information. WSJ.com has steadfastly stuck to subscriptions, FT is profiting nicely and there are still dozens of B2B…

    Digital news, Media news, Google news, Apple news, Publishing news, Entertainment news, Microsoft news, Yahoo news, GE News, Amazon News, Business News, Technology News, M&A News, VC News, Social Media News, Advertising News, Internet News, Guardian News, UK News, London News, Europe News, BBC News

  • Kevin: David Griner writes a very good post on some of the pitfalls of using social media. The seven deadly sins are a nice conceit for some of the most common mistakes. David writes: "There are a million ways for businesses to use social media well, and only a handful of ways to do it horribly wrong. So why do companies keep falling into the same traps?

    The answer is easy: human nature. And as we all know, humans are constantly beset by malicious temptations."

  • Kevin: Paul Bradshaw highlights research about why people aren't using the internet (whether mobile or fixed line). There are still socio-economic and age disparities. What is amazing is how internet and computer skills correlate to economic opportunity, employment and confidence. Is the lack of confidence due to lack of computer skills or did the lack of confidence lead to a lack of skills with computers and the internet? The presentation is definitely worth viewing.
  • Kevin: Laurel Papworth brings together two points of view, looking at Rupert Murdoch's pledge to end the internet as we know it and start charging for content, and comparing that with Amber Smith at Save the Media writing about how newspapers should change based on Jeff Jarvis' views from his book 'What Would Google Do?' At the end of it, Laurel again returns to the idea that media need to reconsider their value-adding proposition. What value do they add, and if they don't add value that is probably why people view news as a commodity.

links for 2009-05-07

  • Kevin: Fiona Campbell-Howes writes an excellent summary of a talk by Emily Bell, head of digital content at Guardian News and Media (yes, my employer). She was talking about the future of journalism. I think that one of the most important points is that journalism will be networked, not siloed. I think that some newsrooms have done well networking with their communities, but they still suffer from a lot of siloed thinking inside the newsroom. Another thing that will probably come as a shock to most is Emily's comment: "News has never been profitable".
  • Kevin: A great round-up of the views of multimedia professionals with a grid of questions. Just click on the 'play' button to hear their views on definitions, essentials of good multimedia and accepting contributions from members of the public.
  • Kevin: "While some news outlets have been trying to put the H1N1 flu virus in perspective, others just can't resist a good panic story. They've been contacting New York University Sociology Professor Eric Klinenberg asking him to talk about the widespread panic in reaction to the flu. Only problem, there is no widespread panic. Klinenberg explains."
  • Kevin: A list from Flowing Data on their favourite data and visualisation blogs.
  • Kevin: Newsweek announces a major shift in how it reports news. They won't 'scramble the jets' to cover a story that is already getting saturation coverage from 24/7 cable news and daily newspapers. "We will no longer reflexively cover the week's events if we don't have something original to add," says Kathleen Deveny. I could ask why the Washington Post and Newsweek didn't cooperate more, but working in the industry. I know the question to that. It's difficult to get journalists in the same newsroom to collaborate and cooperate much less journalists in sister publications.

    Other things to note from this announcement: 1) "We will drop our guaranteed circulation from 2.6 million to 1.5 million by next January." Ouch. 2) "We will focus on a smaller, more devoted, slightly more affluent audience." 3) They probably will charge more.

  • Kevin: Harris online poll looks at social networking use in the US. One data point to note is the low use of Twitter. The highest rate of use for Twitter is amongst 8% amongst 18-34 year olds. Twitter is immensely useful for communications, filtering and aggregation, especially the eco-system of applications that has grown up around it. Does it need to be a majority or mainstream activity to be important? Is this a reality check? Or as one of the commenters says, more broadly than Twitter, does this study show how quickly social networks have risen.

Government support for journalism is no panacea

Today, I had a Twitter discussion with Kevin Garber, an “African entrepreneur in Australia and founder and CEO of spellr.us” an online spellcheck service. As with Twitter conversations, this is actually from two threads that take some joining. It began based on one my response to journalism professor and blogger Jay Rosen who said:

My testimony would have been: No government funding for news; culture war yahoos in Congress will just Mapplethorpe it http://tr.im/kDIb

Jay was linking to a US Senate committee meeting about The Future of Journalism. Jay is referring to the battle over funding for the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) in the US over support of exhibitions of homoerotic photos by Robert Mapplethorpe. The NEA became a key front in the US Culture Wars.

Journalists in the US who look to the BBC model for funding journalism or want their own government bailout would be wise to remember the Culture Wars. They’ve loved covering it, but if they took state funding, they wouldn’t be just be covering it, they would become embroiled in it, even more than they already are. As I said to Jay on Twitter, People in US arguing for gov’t support for newspapers forget what a political football arts or public broadcast funding is.

Kevin said:

the key question is are newspapers a public good that can’t be addressed via normal supply/demand mechanisms …

To which I replied: “No, the question is about about journalism not about newspapers. Public funding for journalism is not a panacea. (says as ex-BBC)”.

I’ll agree with Kevin who said in a follow up comment that “smart capitalism doesn’t rely on mkt for everything”, but I’m not sure that the market is failing in terms of support for professional journalism. Rather, I think we’re in the midst of changing business models and that the dominant print model has given way to a multi-platform model with much greater diversity of revenue streams than the recession sensitive over-reliance on advertising. Newspaper and broadcast journalism are capital-intensive, industrial businesses that rely on advertising rates that were under threat before the recession and are unsustainable during the recession. The market has been sending clear signals to newspapers for 30 years that their business model was under threat, and those trends have only accelerated in the last five years. However, the Great Recession is a rupture in business as usual. Assumptions, business projections and companies are now being swept away as this credit bubble bursts.

Now, like the banking and auto industry, the newspaper industry is looking for a solution, and many journalists share Kevin Garber’s view that newspaper journalism is such an important public good that it merits public funds. You hear it when journalists argue that they play a role essential to democracy.

Even non-journalists make this argument. Suw was at Social Web Foo Camp recently at O’Reilly HQ in California, and she said that many people during a “design the future newspaper” pointed to the BBC as the model that could save journalism. Public service broadcasting is a funding model for journalism, but even in the UK, it hasn’t been extended to newspapers. And I doubt it will be. I think journalists also need to realise that such a model probably couldn’t roll back the job cuts that are hitting US newspapers. This shouldn’t be seen as some full employment act for journalists. Also, let’s get real. As an American, I think it’s safe to say that we would have to be living in some Star Trek-variety parallel universe to even contemplate significant public support in the US for a $200-plus annual licence fee payment to watch live broadcast television (either other-the-air or down a cable of some description). It ain’t gonna happen. Seriously. Also, while many other state broadcasters benefit from a licence fee, the UK is unique in the level of funding, and I think a poll of senior executives at the BBC would find most of them preparing for a dramatically reduced level of public funding in the future.

But apart from the political feasibility of a publicly funded journalism institution at the level of the BBC, let’s take a look at some of the cons stemming from public funding. And I say this coming from the point of view of having worked for Auntie for eight years. I love the BBC, and I was very proud to work there. However, public funding doesn’t come without its downsides (and strings attached, just ask the banks or Chrysler for that matter).

  1. What one administration giveth, another can taketh away. And the cuts might even come from an administration that you think will like you. Bill Clinton didn’t really like the press when he left, and Labour, while it might seem would have much more kinship with the BBC and public broadcasting, has not exactly been a supporter of the BBC. Just ask Director General Mark Thompson who thought he was going to get a much more generous licence fee settlement than he got.
  2. Your commercial competitors will spill tankers of ink, pay lobbyists and rant endlessly on air (cough, Fox News) to make sure that your funding will be as low as possible. Just ask the Corporation for Public Broadcasting in the US. (Maybe you should take a page out of NPR’s books and start subscription drives.)
  3. You’ll have to subject new ideas to a ‘public value test‘ and make sure that it doesn’t distort the commercial market. In other words, you can be successful, but not too successful.
  4. Public funding won’t insulate you from job cuts. As I said, I worked for the BBC for eight years. There were cuts four out of the eight years I worked there. One year, the cuts were 18%, which was a blessing because the Head of New Media at the time, Ashley Highfield, had asked for 25%. And the cuts continue. This year, they are looking to find £400m of savings.

There are pros, of course, and the BBC is a great journalistic institution. But it’s not in the ruddy health that most American journalists assume it is. Like much of the media, it reached a high water mark in the early part of this decade, and it’s now swimming against the tide. This is not to say that public funding shouldn’t play a role in journalism, but it already does in the US in the form of NPR and public television. Also, based on the experience of Sweden, state support might help for while, but it’s not a long-term solution.

I’ll be interested to see what if anything comes out of the US Senate hearings today, but if it’s government support you want, be careful what you wish for.

UPDATE: A timely example of what I’m getting at. If journalists are anxious over a sense of powerlessness from market forces, it’s no different when the government can change your budget by fiat. See: (Conservative Party leader) Cameron to force vote to halt increase in BBC licence fee. He might not get his way now, but he might when he’s prime minister.

What does the future hold for social technology?

Part of my research for Carnegie UK Trust is about trying to work out what driving forces are going to affect the way that social technology and the internet is going to evolve over the next 15 years, and what that might mean for civil society organisations that want to be a part of that landscape. We’re not trying to predict the future – I think we all know how embarrassing that can be when it doesn’t come true. Just think jetpacks and flying cars. But what we can do is try to identify the driving forces behind potential change and then put those together into possible scenarios. We can ask the question “What if…?” and get some useful information out of that exercise.

On their website, Carnegie UK Trust put it like this:

The future is uncertain. There is no single, certain forecast for ourselves, our organisations, communities, nations or for the planet as a whole. While we would like to eliminate this uncertainty, we must work to live with it effectively and creatively. Understanding trends and scenarios gives a sense of the patterns of opportunities and threats, and enhances our potential effectiveness and creativity.

While the future is uncertain and much of it beyond our control, we can control many aspects of it. We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do. Visions and strategies linked to a clear sense of trends and scenarios make us better able to shape the future we would prefer.

We’re using a methodology called ‘scenarios thinking’, which focuses much more on asking questions than on trying to make forecasts, and will hopefully result in a set of scenarios that organisations can use to help them understand where we might find ourselves and, therefore, what they need to focus on in order to be able to cope with these changes. If you want to know more about scenarios thinking, Carnegie UK Trust have put together a list of useful resources.

Whilst I was in San Francisco last month, I spent some time with a number of people talking about the future, trying to find out what they thought was important to consider in this phase of the research. I went into the interviews with a list of questions that I’d like to try to answer, but with an open mind about what the answers might be. I didn’t always ask the questions directly, as you’ll hear, but I did keep them in the front of my mind at al times. Here they are for your consideration. I’d be more than happy to have feedback on them, to hear what you think about my underlying assumptions.

1. Predetermined driving forces
What forces appear to be predetermined?
What changes in the broader environment appear unavoidable?
What assumptions are these changes based upon?

2. Uncertain driving forces
What might happen over the next 15 years that would affect social technology?
If you could have any question answered about what will happen by 2025, what would it be?
How uncertain are they?
Which are becoming more certain?

3. Wildcard events
What type of unexpected developments could totally change the game?
What could undermine existing assumptions?

4. Connections and criticality
Are any of these driving forces connected?
Which are the most important?
Which small changes could have big consequences?
Which of these driving forces are critical?

It’s important to remember that the driving forces that most influence the way that social technology develops may not be technological. We’re not just talking about Moore’s Law here, but trends and developments in all sorts of areas, including:

  • Demographic
  • Economic
  • Environmental
  • Resources
  • Technological
  • Social
  • Political
  • Legal

Obviously we’re focused on the UK, but some of these forces are international or global in nature, so influences may come from anywhere.

The videos (so far)
Some of the interviewees were kind enough to let me publish our discussion, so here they are. If you want to respond to any of them, or answer my questions yourself, please do so however and wherever you wish. If you post something elsewhere, please leave a comment to let me know.

Last thing to say before the videos: apologies for the quality of some of them. James and JP were filmed whilst we were at dinner, and it was a bit dark and noise, so the video isn’t great, but they’re both quite short so hopefully you can forgive the lo-fi production standards!

James Cox

JP Rangaswami

Chris Messina

Ross Mayfield

Update: If you work in the third sector or know people who do, please also take a look at this post about a survey I’m running to find out how third sector associations are using social tools at the moment.

links for 2009-05-02

  • Kevin: Ten lessons from Mark Goldenson who tried to start "an internet TV network for games called PlayCafe". One thing to note for journalists looking for new opportunities: "Content businesses suck (or: do it for love and expect to lose money)." And as many have written about, media start-ups are not job creation programmes for journalists. They are usually small on staffing and funding and big on risk.

links for 2009-05-01

  • Kevin: Alex Lockwood looks into the future of local journalism and local government in the UK ahead of Parliamentary inquiry. Alex repeats what is becoming a more frequent call that journalism, not newspapers, needs saving. He adds: "What is important here is not the newspaper’s historical position. It is not the paper’s brand that make this local journalism worthy of the stamp ‘quality’. It is the standards of journalism itself, which can exist independent of the structures of a local paper: the fact-checking, the transparency, the reporting for the public good. And that can be done by Roy at No.53 on his own blog, or by a crowd-sourced MySociety project."
  • Kevin: Robin Hamman talks about a major study that he is working on with several others to study the BBC's use of user-generated content. As Robin says, it is an ambitious study that that will interview BBC staff and managers as well poll the public on their views of BBC UGC.
  • Kevin: Bill Grueskin at Reflections of a Newsosaur speaks with Scott Karp of publish2 and Gordon Crovitz of Journalism Online, two journalism startups with very different models. Crovitz explains the strategy or Jornalism Online: "he outlined a four-pronged strategy, ranging from providing a commerce system for publishers to devising aggressive marketing plans to sell subscriptions across the board for multiple outlets. His group also wants to help negotiate licensing and royalty deals with aggregators, which may explain why they brought attorneys David Boies and Theodore Olson to the company’s board." For publish2, Scott talked about developing a tool that would allow news organisations to pool their reporting resources and expertise. He sees Publish2 revenue streams as "paid, commercial applications of his platform, as well as building a broader advertising network among news organizations." Two different models, and there is a good overview of them both. Well worth reading.
  • Kevin: The title is pretty self-explanatory on this one. Publishers Lunch, a daily paid newsletter, did some reporting and research and found based on numbers from Amazon's Kindle forum that: "over half of reporting Kindle owners are 50 or older, and 70 percent are 40 or older". Joshua Benton at Nieman says after seeing these numbers, "It’s older folks — not the gadget crowd, not the young bookloving crowd, and not the mathematical intersect of the two." If Kindle readers are older, this is not going to capture the demographic that newspapers looking for new revenue streams are hoping for.
  • Kevin: An interesting project from the BBC Audio & Music Interactive team looking to create a Feeds Hub. One thing I like about it is that they appear to be working on an open-source project rather than trying to replicate an existing commercial technology. What they want to do is help the BBC make sense of its own feeds and and also to get usage statistics on those feeds. Other features that I like are feed monitoring to know when something breaks. And they are working on a system that will allow for non-technical staff to set up and manage their feeds.
  • Kevin: Charlie has a good summary of a speech by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung editor Betholdt Kohler. The "elitist and unashamedly so" newspaper is trying to chart a course, but Herr Kohler makes a good case for maintaining the newspaper's traditions. Much like The Guardian, the newspaper is supported by a foundation and isn't subject to some of the pressures of the market. However, some of the practices seem a bit wasteful. Production and distribution make up 60% of their costs. That seems high. But I think that weekly analysis like The Economist has a market. However, The Economist seems to be taking a more sophisticated approach than FAZ, building up an intelligent web presence and strategy rather than dismissing online news sites as tracking "the nervous twitching of news as it happens". That sounds like simple print prejudice.
  • Kevin: I'm going home to backup my Flickr photos. Om Malik looks at some of the cuts and departures from the photo sharing site. I'd have to agree with Om on this one. The cuts at Flickr seem those non-strategic cuts, mass headcount culls by a company in crisis. They had some of clearest thinking about building experiences around social objects, namely photos.